Assessing Land Use and Climate Change Impacts on Soil Erosion Caused by Water in China

Soil erosion poses a significant threat to land conservation, freshwater security, and ocean ecology. Climate change, with rainfall as one of its primary drivers, exacerbates this problem. Therefore, reliably predicting future soil rates taking into account anthropogenic influences are crucial for policymakers researchers in the earth-system field. To address challenge, we have developed novel framework that combines Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method Revised Universal Loss Equation (RUSLE) model estimate on national scale. We used BMA merge five Regional Models (RCMs), reducing uncertainty ensemble simulations improving plausibility projected changes climatic regimes over China under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP4.5 RCP8.5). The RUSLE was applied forecast effects climate change land-use water China, using high-resolution simulation prediction inputs. Our findings revealed RCP4.5 RCP8.5 scenarios, average annual loss will increase by 21.20% 33.06%, respectively, compared baseline period. analysis also demonstrated clear distinction between erosion. leads an precipitation, which rates, contributions ranging from 59.99% 78.21%. Furthermore, radiative forcing further amplify change. transformation has not been disturbed humans exposed some conservation measures mitigating effect erosion, contribution −6.96% −4.68%. implementing effective can somewhat mitigate severity ongoing loss. implications seeking develop strategies developers working reduce predictions.